Is The Unemployment Rate Our Last Hope?

Is the unemployment rate our last hope?
Hey there, my fellow real estate enthusiasts! So as you probably already know about me from my last several market update emails, I'm fairly bearish on the market outlook. It's been nice to have had a bit of a break in the last week as far as real estate goes, even tho the rest of the country seems to be going a bit crazy.

But alas, we're not out of the woods yet.

 

Michael Kantrowitz, a seasoned expert in macroeconomic research and investment strategy, came up with HOPE, which is a framework that he uses to measure the progression of an economy into a recession. It consists of four stages: Housing, Orders, Profits, and Employment.

The stages progress in the following order: first, a downturn in the housing market, followed by a decline in new orders, then a fall in corporate profits, and finally an increase in unemployment and layoffs.

The US has experienced three out of the four stages in the HOPE framework: housing, orders, and profits. The next stage expected to happen is employment, where layoffs and increased unemployment rates are expected to occur.

If the unemployment rate starts to rise, it could indicate that the economy has entered the final stage, and a recession is likely to occur within a few months.


*you see what I did there? ;oP
 
So I guess the next thing is to keep an eye out on companies doing massive layoffs and see how it affects the unemployment rate...

I hope you find these emails helpful. If you or anyone you know has any real estate questions or plans please let me know. And if you know of anyone who might enjoy these newsletters as much as you do, please forward to a friend.

 
Real Estate in the News
-Keeping Current Matters
 
Lack of Listings Inventory Keeps U.S. Home Prices Propped Up
-World Property Journal
 
-Market Watch
 
-Redfin
 

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